Will he—or won’t he? That question is gripping the Middle East as the USS Gerald R. Ford, dozens of additional fighter jets, and a widening ring of support vessels move into place. The region is bracing for a potential U.S. strike on Iran, but the final decision rests with a single individual. For now, U.S. President Donald Trump has not made that call—and whatever he decides could shape the region’s trajectory for decades. Yet even as global attention fixes on the horizon, anticipating the launch of Tomahawk missiles, a quieter—though no less consequential—shift is already underway beneath the surface.

This is the kind of strategic shift usually associated with leaders intent on leaving a legacy that endures beyond their time in office. In Israel’s current government, Bezalel Smotrich may be one of the few figures who can plausibly make that claim. While public attention has been consumed by the threat of regional war, he has quietly advanced what many observers describe as a systematic, de facto annexation of Judea and Samaria.