Postmortem on vicious battle over Iran deal

The champagne corks aren’t popping just yet, but the winner and loser have already been named

After eight weeks of intense lobbying and tens of millions of dollars spent on campaigning, the Iran deal train is about to reach its final US station. Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill are still discussing the debate procedures for the resolution disapproving the deal, but the postmortem – designating the winners and losers of the vicious battle – is already under way. The White House is not popping champagne corks just yet, but President Obama is already holding his trophy, having scored a decisive political victory, even exceeding expectations.

 

To begin with, the chances of Congress killing the deal were not high, since Democrats needed to secure a low bar – only a third of the Senate – to sustain a presidential veto. However, the heavy Republican-Jewish-Israeli efforts to derail the deal yielded only minor success. Only four Democratic senators were persuaded to oppose the deal; 19 of the 28 Jewish lawmakers in the House – specifically targeted by the anti-deal campaign – eventually decided to support it.

 

The administration’s bunker buster was partisanship. Support for the president’s policy was determined by party affiliation: not a single Republican senator supported the deal, and all those who announced they were on board are Democrats are independents who caucus with them. The Israeli prime minister’s combative address to Congress in March – at the invitation of Republicans behind the back of the White House – was a tipping point in that respect. It poisoned the political environment, infuriated the Democrats and pushed them to side with the president.

 

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