Neither the US nor Israel knows for sure when Iran will have a nuclear weapon

The predictions of US Secretary of State and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Thursday, Nov. 7 that Iran may have a nuclear weapon within a year were more an expression of concern over the reactivation of the under Fordow enrichment site than a forecast based on solid data. The identical one-year prediction was heard in 2012 and nothing was done about it – either by the US or Israel.

It may be said that neither of their intelligence agencies knows for sure when Iran will advance to an operational nuclear capacity – or even where its nukes are to be cached. After all, neither had advance knowledge of Iran’s plan to let loose 25 cruise missiles and exploding drones against Saudi Arabia’s oil fields and processing plant on September 14, until the moment it happened. Can they do better to discover the moment that Iran’s nuclear program is weaponized?

This week, Massimo Aparo, the top inspector of the international nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, summoned a special board meeting to discuss Iran’s failure to level with inspectors on the source of the “man-made and natural uranium particles” found in a secret warehouse in Tehran that was uncovered last year in a daring Israeli Mossad operation to smuggle out Iran’s atomic archive. How many more secret nuclear facilities remain undiscovered in Iran?